Could Arizona immigration case eclipse health care ruling?

Kris Kobach

The Kansas City Star

All eyes continue to focus on the Supreme Court, which will release its rulings on the Affordable Care Act and the Arizona immigration law next week.

The health care decision will have a bigger impact than the immigration opinion in terms of the nation's fiscal and physical health. As a political matter, though, the immigration ruling may be more important.

It's becoming increasingly clear Hispanics are considered the key voting bloc in the 2012 presidential election. President Obama's decision to forgo prosecutions on some cases is an indication of that, and Mitt Romney's major immigration speech today in Florida is another clue.

(Read the story, by the way. We probably couldn't find a better indication that Kris Kobach's advisory role with Romney has slipped dramatically.)

And while supporters and opponents of Obamacare will have a field day after that ruling is out, most Latino voters are likely to react more directly if the court upholds Arizona's tough immigration statute. Obama, we can guess, will try to exploit that anger -- blaming the court, and warning of Romney's potential conservative appointments to it.

Conversely, if the court throws out the Arizona law, it will infuriate conservatives -- but potentially give Hispanics less incentive to turn out for Obama. Both developments could help Romney (an angry conservative voter being a more energetic Romney voter.)

So it's possible the GOP nominee would actually politically prefer an unconstitutional Arizona law, even though Kobach helped write it.

As a political matter, most Americans have made up their minds about health care reform. Good or bad, the court's decision appears unlikely to move as many November votes as immigration.

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