Let’s make a deal. I’ll talk, you listen.
* Democrats in Missouri are keeping a close eye on how the presidential race is playing out in their state. They are concerned, rightly, that if Mitt Romney’s lead over President Obama grows much fatter than 5 or 6 points that they will suffer a massive drubbing.
Sure, Show-Me voters are known for switching back and forth between parties. Thousands of Missourians have no problem voting for a Republican such as Romney and a Democrat, such as Gov. Jay Nixon.
But other voters aren’t as selective. They vote for a Republican such as Romney, then continue voting Republican right down the ballot.
That’s why some Democrats are worried.
In 2008, Obama and GOP nominee John McCain virtually tied in Missouri; McCain won by 4,000 votes. But what if Romney wins by 5 points? Based on the 2008 turnout, that would be by 150,000 votes. If it’s a 7-point win, the number jumps to 210,000.
A lot of those voters will go straight ticket. That may not be enough to swamp Nixon, but lesser-known candidates could be in a pickle.
Even though his party’s presidential nominee lost Missouri, Nixon still picked up 238,700 votes more than Obama in a big Democratic year. But state treasurer Clint Zweifel didn’t do as well. Obama picked up 47,284 more votes than Zweifel. If Romney wins in a blowout, look out.
“Anything over 8 points (for Romney) and the whole Democratic ticket could go,” one GOP operative said.
Romney is said to be leading by 5 or 6 points — or even a couple more right now.
* The most fascinating poll number of the week came from the Pew Research Center, which some regard as the gold standard of American polling. Voters were asked whether Obama or Romney is best suited to fix the still-lackluster U.S. economy, and they chose Obama by 48-42 percent over Romney.
That was a flip from June when Romney led by eight.
Based on my daily deluge of emails from the Romney camp pummeling Obama for his flawed economic stewardship, his attacks are falling short. Watch this number as November nears.
* Best ad of the U.S. Senate GOP primary race in Missouri? Easy call. It’s the spot on behalf of Todd Akin that features 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee looking straight at the camera and praising Akin.
Because of his TV work, Huckebee remains popular in Missouri, and in a small-turnout election like a primary, he’s a good choice to carry a message.
* I’m not buying it that Nixon is suddenly in trouble in the wake of his veto this week of that contraception bill. You’ve got to beat somebody with somebody. And so far, Republican front-runner Dave Spence hasn’t demonstrated the potential to make the incumbent sweat.
To reach Steve Kraske, call 816-234-4312 or send email to skraske@kcstar.com.
